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As the objective is to investigate the efficiency of foreign exchange market in Mauritius, the following mxrkets for testing have been designed as follows:. Exchange rates, in common with many markkets variables, typically exhibit non-stationary time live-forex-signals review processes: Here, two unit roots test are used to rv markets forex if the spot exchange series follow a random walk.
Spot exchange rate series follow a random walk if the foreign exchange data reflect markets forex rv available information.
If the unit root tests indicate that the forex series rv markets forex non-stationary, then they are said to follow a random walk process. The more negative it is, the stronger the rejection of the hypothesis marjets there is a unit root at some level of confidence.
It is also volume indicator trading system that the error rv markets forex should be correlated.
Most time forex rv markets in economics exhibit trend over time and when this is the case, it is usually said that these time series are not stationary contain unit root. Being non-stationary implies that the mean, variance and covariance are not constant over time. In the context of this study, when data contains a unit root it means the data follows a random walk.
The Phillips-Perron test  is a unit root test which is used in time series analysis to test the null hypothesis that a time series is integrated of order 1.
It makes a non-parametric correction to the t-test stastistic with Zt stastistic allowing for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in the rv markets forex process of the test equation.
The regression equation of the PP test is indicated as follows:. Cointegration tests are carried out in markets forex rv to see if the markets share a long run stochastic trend. The first step rv markets forex the analysis tests for the order of integration of the variables.
Order of integration refers to the number of times a variable is differenced before becoming stationary.
One condition for the co-integration tests is that the rv markets forex in the co-integrating equation must be integrated of the same order. In this paper, ADF and PP tests are used to test the stationarity of markets forex rv residuals obtained from the bivariate cointegration equations. In making inferences about the number of cointegrating relations, two statistics known as trace statistic and maximal eigenvalue statistic are used.
The trace statistic analysed the null hypothesis rv markets forex there are at most r cointegrating vectors against the alternative hypothesis markkets r or more cointegrating vectors.
To make inferences regarding the number of cointegrating relationships, trace and maximum eigenvalue statistics are compared with the critical values tabulated in Froex The vector error correction VEC is also estimated to investigate weak exogeneity and to do hypothesis testing since VEC compensation expense stock options applied only if there is a long run cointegrated relationship among markets forex rv series.
To be able to run Johansen cointegrating test the data must be nonstationary.
If there is no long run cointegrated relationship among the variables, a VAR model specification rv markets forex estimated. Granger Causality TestBrooks  forex rv markets is an additional test to verify the results of the cointegration test by confirming the presence of the semi-strong form of EMH whereby there should be no causal relationships between the currencies indicating that one volume indicator trading system rate can be forecasted by one or more of the other exchange rates.
The Granger causality test is useful in finding whether one time-series fforex t can be predicted by another time-series y t. The test is carried out rv markets forex regressing x t on its lagged values and goldman option trades lagged values of y t. If the results indicate that x t can be predicted by markets forex rv tit is said that y t Granger causes x t.
Granger causality implies a correlation between the current value of one variable and the past values of others; it does not mean changes in one variable cause changes in another. It is utilized to determine the causality beyond the sample period. In this study, the variance of the forecast error of a particular variable is divided into proportions creditable to shocks or innovations in each variable in the system as well as its own rv markets forex.
A shock forex rv markets the ith variable will directly affect that variable of course, but it will also be transmitted to all of the other variables in the trading forex buat pemula through the dynamic structure rv markets forex the VAR.
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We started our investigation with some basic descriptive statistics long term forex options the foreign exchange data for Mauritius focusing on the mean, standard deviation as a measure of volatility, skewness markets forex rv kurtosis.
The descriptive statistics are represented in Table 1 below. Fordx to this study, it indicates that all variables have a positive mean with a positive kurtosis which states that the distribution forfx the foreign exchange data are leptokurtic resulting in higher peaks than expected from normal distribution. Moreover, it is seen that some foreign exchange series are skewed to the right namely GBP 0.
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Moreover, the standard deviation reports that the FX market is very rv markets forex representing a very low volatility in returns. Here, the unit root tests are conducted at level and first difference. At first point, all exchange data are non-stationary in their levels but when they are first differenced, they become stationary. In other words, spot options brokers results are conformed with the weak form efficient hypothesis.
Therefore, the participants in the foreign exchange market in Mauritius cannot devise any statistical technique to gain from foreign forex rv markets market transactions.
ADF Test results for unit roots. Notes for the above table: Table 3 examines the results of the PP unit root test for the four spot exchange rates for levels and the first differences of rorex natural log values. Here, it is seen rv markets forex the forex rv markets are similar to the ADF test statistics where at first point, all exchange data are non-stationary at the first level.
On the other hand, when tested at the first difference, they become stationary. Therefore, the null hypothesis that Mauritian foreign series are non-stationary will have to be rejected and the other alternative will have to be accepted. Hence, we can say that the foreign exchange data series are stationary and do not have a unit root.
The results affirm the earlier results of the ADF test stating that the foreign exchange rates in Mauritius behave as rv markets forex walks providing support for markets forex rv weak-form of the EMH.
According to the study, both tests confirm that the data become non-stationary at first level and become stationary when they are tested at the First difference which support the existence of rv markets forex weak form efficiency. In other words, the Mxrkets foreign exchange market is efficient in the weak form.
The results of the study are consistent with a number of studies 1.
Table 4 reports the Johansen co-integration test results carried out to test for long-run co-movement rv markets forex the four currencies. The co-integrating properties are analyzed using two test statistics, trace and maximum Eigen value. The values of trace statistics are given in column two, with five and one percent.
PP test results for unit roots. Johansen cointegration test results.
Similarly, the values of maximum Eigen value are shown in column five, with five and one rv markets forex critical values in columns six and seven, respectively. Therefore, there is no long run relationship among the exchange rate variables.
As a result, we can say that the Mauritian foreign exchange forex rv markets is efficient in the semi-strong form the best binary option trading software is rv markets forex with the study a number of studies 2. However, the results are still not conclusive. Therefore, to further verify and confirm the presence of rv markets forex relationship between the variables, we proceed to carry out the Granger Causality test.
The results of which are tabulated Table 5. Therefore, the null hypothesis that there is no granger causality relationship among the Mauritian foreign exchange market will have to be rejected. The results conquer with a number of findings 3. The basic requirement of the semi-strong form market efficiency is that there should be no granger causality relationships among the foreign exchange data.
However, the empirical results clearly indicate the presence of causal relationships which states that one exchange rate can predict one or more exchange rates which is contradictory rv markets forex the semi-strong form market efficiency. Option trading illustration, it can be deduced that the Mauritian foreign market is not efficient in a semi- strong form.
However, another test that is Variance Decomposition will have to be further performed to confirm the results of Granger Causality test. Granger causality test results. Table 6 represents the results of the variance decomposition analysis. This narkets was used bollinger bands vix confirm the Rv markets forex causality test results to examine the causality of Mauritian foreign exchange fodex.
The other exchange rates explain a very little proportion of the variability of these two exchange rates at all time forex rv markets considered.
When foreex GBP exchange rate is considered, most of its variance is explained by itself.
At this time horizon, EUR exchange rate explains most of the remaining variability around 0. Variance decomposition test results.
All figures have been rounded to two decimal places.
Regarding USD exchange rate, At this same period, GBP accounts for 1. However, the influence of the EUR is more prominent at all time horizons. As far as JPY exchange rate is concerned, it seems that the variance is explained by Moreover, EUR rv markets forex most of remaining variability that is 1.
At longer time horizons that is 48 months, JPY stands for The above results stated that the variance of one exchange rate is explained by rv markets forex revealing causal relationships between currencies. Hence, these results do not support the semi-strong form of the EMH to the Mauritian foreign exchange market.
Such causal relationships can be used to predict the future value of one currency from the past values of one or more of the other currencies. In this study, rv markets forex has been noted that the results of the Johansen cointegration test state markets forex rv there is no fore relationship among the foreign exchange variables. However, the Granger Causality Test and variance decomposition analysis confirm the contrary and therefore indicate that the movement in one or more of the currencies markete be predicted using the other exchange rates.
These results are inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis in its semi-strong form.
Hence, the results conquer with a number of studies 4. Rv markets forex foreign exchange market is one of the main important financial aspect of any economy of a country.
The study was concerned with the investigation of the efficiency of the Mauritian foreign exchange market based on the theory of the EMH concentrating on the weak form fogex semi-strong market hypothesis. The study used rv markets forex spot rates forex rv markets for a period of 5 years ranging from and with a total number of observations.
Firstly, rv markets forex empirical results indicated that the Augmented Dicker Fuller and Phillips Perron unit root test conclude that the foreign exchange market is efficient in the weak-form market hypothesis. Therefore, the results are strictly consistent with the number of studies 5.
Moreover, the Johansen cointegration test was also examined and confirmed that rv markets forex were no long-run relationships among the foreign exchange variables. However, when the Granger causality test was performed, it stated that there was the presence of unidirectional and bidirectional causal relationships between the various spot rates tested.
Variance Decomposition analysis was also utilized to confirm the existence of long run comovements rv markets forex the variables and concluded that there was the presence of innovations and shocks in the long run among the foreign exchange data.
The findings conquer with the number of studies 6.
Based on the given tip sukses trading forex, it is concluded that the foreign exchange market in Mauritius is efficient in the weak form. These results indicate that the participants in the foreign exchange market in Mauritius cannot sub-divide some rule or technique markets forex rv can be utilized to forecast future movements of an exchange rate from its past values.
However, when the Johansen Cointegration marmets is performed, the semi- strong form efficiency was supported but when the Granger Causality test and Variance Decomposition were used, the results showed that there were long run relationships among the various foreign exchange rates which is not in accordance with the forrx form.
In other words, one exchange rv markets forex can predict one or more exchange rates and that exchange rate traders and market players can make returns on speculation rv markets forex public information. The results of the present research have important implications for the Mauritian government policy-making institutions as well as for the participants of the foreign exchange markets. The government will have to take action so as to reduce the exchange rate volatility and instability and appraise the effects of different economic policies on the behaviour rv markets forex exchange rates.
Binary option svenska participants of the foreign exchange market can benefit by devising trading rules or strategies to forex rv markets profits from transactions in the foreign exchange market. Journal of International Economics, 49, Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 3, 8.
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